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This paper articulates the disproportionate policy perspective and uses it to mount four challenges for the new policy design orientation. First, in contrast to the new policy design thinking, disproportionate policy options may b...
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This paper articulates the disproportionate policy perspective and uses it to mount four challenges for the new policy design orientation. First, in contrast to the new policy design thinking, disproportionate policy options may be systematically designed, and at times, successfully implemented. Second, in contrast to the new policy design thinking, there are certain conditions under which policymakers may tend to develop effective response, with cost considerations becoming only secondary in importance if at all (read, policy overreaction), or cost-conscious response, with effectiveness considerations becoming only secondary in importance if at all (read, policy underreaction). Third, in contrast to the new policy design thinking, disproportionate policy options may be designed for purposes other than implementation (e.g., to be used as signaling devices or as context-setters). Fourth, in contrast to new policy design thinking, there are certain conditions under which the emotional arena of policy may be equally, if not more, important than the substantive one. The paper concludes that so far the literature on new policy design has not responded to the emergence of the disproportionate policy perspective, but a robust research agenda awaits those answering this paper's call for action.
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The main objective of this article is to examine the long-term overreaction for all listed shares in the Egyptian Stock Exchange. I find evidence of long-term overreaction which is not due to size effect. Therefore, a contrarian s...
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The main objective of this article is to examine the long-term overreaction for all listed shares in the Egyptian Stock Exchange. I find evidence of long-term overreaction which is not due to size effect. Therefore, a contrarian strategy by buying losers and selling winners is likely to be profitable. The findings also suggest that the overreaction phenomenon in the Egyptian stock market is not sensitive to the length of the formation period. Interestingly, I find a link between the regulatory policies and long-term overreaction as I find no evidence of investor overreaction within the strict price limit regime. On the other hand, the over-reaction phenomenon is clear during the circuit-breaker regime. The findings also show that the overreaction phenomenon in the Egyptian Stock Exchange cannot be attributed to the seasonality effect.
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This article seeks to critique and extend recent work in the policy sciences, by Maor in particular, on disproportionate policy making-including policy overreaction and underreaction. While the disproportionate policy making thesi...
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This article seeks to critique and extend recent work in the policy sciences, by Maor in particular, on disproportionate policy making-including policy overreaction and underreaction. While the disproportionate policy making thesis does help address assumptions that something is amiss in the policy process by capturing an imbalance between policy problems and the interventions to address them, we argue that it does not pay sufficient attention to politics. We present a heuristic which includes political perception of both programme and political threats. Our core argument is that much of what is considered disproportionate policy making, can in fact also be considered proportionate politics. Our analysis paves the way for a more holistic and political understanding of policy dynamics.
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Contemporary theories of the policy process typically assume that policy responses tend to go through long periods of stasis alternated with occasional bursts of intense activity. The concept of policy punctuations has been put fo...
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Contemporary theories of the policy process typically assume that policy responses tend to go through long periods of stasis alternated with occasional bursts of intense activity. The concept of policy punctuations has been put forward to denote large-scale changes in public policies that take place in crisis moments. However, research on the dynamics of policy overreaction and underreaction is still in its infancy. It has mostly focused on either small-n cross-sectional analysis of government spending or case studies of single events. A comparative assessment of the extent of disproportionate responses in a crisis is still lacking. To fill this gap, in this paper we develop a framework to conceptualize, operationalize, and ultimately assess disproportionate policy responses systematically from a cross-sectional perspective. We create a series of indexes to measure policy over- and underreactions among the EU member states that experienced the 2007-2008 banking crisis. We found that a large majority of EU countries overreacted through public liability guarantee and budget commitment. On the other hand, regulatory responses are characterized by a greater variation.
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With the data of housing transaction records of Shanghai during 2004-2015, this paper comprehensively analyzes the housing market in this metropolis, and pays special attention to the market dynamics related to the frequent policy...
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With the data of housing transaction records of Shanghai during 2004-2015, this paper comprehensively analyzes the housing market in this metropolis, and pays special attention to the market dynamics related to the frequent policy changes. We focus on the secondary market, and build repeat sales indexes. Then the AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model is applied to estimate the weight of housing consumption incentives relative to investment incentives. It turns out that the overall market features strong consumption incentives, especially in the suburb area. Moreover, the market tends to overreact to policy changes. Compared with the suburb area, downtown features more investment incentives, lower returns and volatility, and less overreaction to policy changes. We infer that long-term investors overreact less than consumers. Finally, the purchase restriction policy and the issue of non-local buyers are discussed. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Policy scholars tend to view disproportionate policy and its two component concepts - policy over- and underreaction - as either unintentional errors of commission or omission, or nonintentional responses that political executives...
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Policy scholars tend to view disproportionate policy and its two component concepts - policy over- and underreaction - as either unintentional errors of commission or omission, or nonintentional responses that political executives never intended to implement yet are not executed unknowingly, inadvertently or accidentally. This article highlights a conceptual turn, whereby these concepts are reentering the policy lexicon as types of intentional policy responses that are largely undertaken when political executives are vulnerable to voters. Intentional overreactions derive from the desire of political executives to pander to voters' opinions or signal extremity by overreacting to these opinions in domains susceptible to manipulation for credit-claiming purposes. Intentional underreactions are motivated by political executives' attempts to avoid blame and may subsequently lead to deliberate overreaction. This conceptual turn forces scholars to recognise the political benefits that elected executives may reap from deliberately implementing disproportionate policies, and that such policies can at times be effective.
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How does the general public determine if a policy intervention is appropriate or an overreaction, and how do such judgments influence compliance? In four studies, we found that prospective judgments of overreaction are influenced ...
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How does the general public determine if a policy intervention is appropriate or an overreaction, and how do such judgments influence compliance? In four studies, we found that prospective judgments of overreaction are influenced by how likely a bad event is to occur, and retrospective judgments are influenced by whether the intervention is successful. In Studies 1-3, we investigated the mechanics of these judgments and found that if the bad event is low-risk, or the intervention is successful in preventing it, people judge the intervention to be an overreaction. In Study 4, a survey of 450 US participants showed that opinions of the risks and outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic correlated with overreaction judgments, and critically, those judgments of overreaction predicted non-compliance with public health measures.
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This paper contends that abundant liquidity in the economy might be an important determinant of market inefficiency. Restrictive monetary periods are characterised by high bank lending growth compared with expansive monetary perio...
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This paper contends that abundant liquidity in the economy might be an important determinant of market inefficiency. Restrictive monetary periods are characterised by high bank lending growth compared with expansive monetary periods. Therefore, if excess liquidity is a cause of market inefficiency, the latter is expected to come out essentially in restrictive monetary environments. Consistent with this intuition, empirical tests here highlight that expected stock returns in the USA are driven by fundamentals only in expansive monetary phases whereas investor sentiment seems to be the most important driving force in restrictive monetary environments.
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